Quid pro quo?

The latest Turkish incursion into Iraq has seemed different for several reasons. First, there is the timing. The mountains, difficult terrain under the best of circumstances, still have plenty of snow on them which makes it very hard for conventional forces to maneuver. My recollection is that all previous incursions have taken place under much more favorable weather conditions. For the army to move in now seems to suggest that it had actionable intelligence which justified the additional weather related hazards. Second there seem to be indication that the attack was coordinated with both the US authorities and Talabani - but not with Barzani. The US has confirmed that they were informed in advance. The foreign minister of Iraq Hoshyar Zebari claims they were informed at the "last minute." but his protests were not as strong as that of Massoud Barzani, the head of the Kurdistan regional government. And I haven't seen anything from Talabani himself. Also Talabani was invited to Ankara, something he had wanted for some time but which had been blocked by the previous nationalist president Sezer.

Talabani and Barzani have been long time rivals fighting some pretty nasty wars among themselves in which Barzani even allied himself with Saddam supposedly to offset a Talabani alliance with Iran. Barzani has been a prickly ally for the US and I have wondered if US patience with him would run out. The invitation to Talabani might be an indication that there might be movement in this direction. In the past Barzani has shown himself to be tactically astute while lacking somewhat in strategic thinking. Talabani, on the other hand, has generally tried to take the long view. In the long term the future of the landlocked Iraqi Kurds is strongly dependent on Turkey. It would make sense for Talabani to develop contacts with Turkey - hence his desire to visit Turkey as the president of Iraq. I wonder if whatever intelligence prompted the Turks to move originated was prepayment. Or it may be that I have an overactive imagination.

Prediction check

So how did the empty predictions do - pretty darn well if you look at the last one!

• In Sind the thuggish MQM will win in Karachi and the PPP will take the rural areas. Check.
  
• The religious parties will lose their governments in the NWFP and Balochistan. Check.
  
• Punjab is going to be where, at least in the short term, the future of Pakistan will be decided. To be seen.
  
• The elections will be reasonably fair Check
  
• but the losing groups will claim otherwise. Check [this out]
  

I will try to put together some kind of analysis of the results - but it may take a bit. Until then watch the PPP step back from its anti-Musharraf rhetoric. The dance continues.

Election Results

Results for the elections in Pakistan can be found at this Dawn site. It is very early but it sure looks like the religious parties are not doing too well. Seats that had been won by the MMA (which was the coalition of religious parties) in 2002 are going to the PPP (or the PPPP to be exact).

Update:


The results as of 7:30 am eastern time are


PPPP (Bhutto's party): 87
PML(N)(Sharif's party): 66
PML(Q)(Musharraf's party): 38
MQM (Allied with Musharraf): 19
ANP: 10
BNP: 1
MMA (Religious parties): 3


At first glance this almost looks like the results from 25 years ago which in a way would not be surprising - same old, same old. It will be interesting to look at the results more closely.


In the provincial elections as of now PPPP holds a majority in Sind, PML(N) has a plurality in Punjab, the ANP has a plurality in NWFP and the PML(Q) has a plurality in Balochistan.

Pakistani Elections

Its the big day. Finally Pakistani's will go to the polls. If they had been held a year ago the results would have been predictable - a reasonably good showing for the the king's party - PML-Q. But if Musharraf has shown one thing it is his inability to look more than two steps ahead. Rather than take the opportunity then to call elections he waited and whatever good will he had accumulated slowly leaked away. There was the Chief Justice fiasco, the Lal Masjid fiasco, the movement of Jihadi's into Swat, and now the increasing food prices and lines for wheat. Of all of the reasons the last in some ways is the most important. In this one year Musharraf has become perhaps even more despised than Asif Zardari, the widower of Benazir, and that takes some doing. The polls all seem to point to a rout of the PML-Q - China Hand at American Footprints has been keeping on top of all the developments. But polls have never been very useful in Pakistan - maybe this time will be different. One can still make a few predictions though.

In Sind the thuggish MQM will win in Karachi and the PPP will take the rural areas.

The religious parties will lose their governments in the NWFP and Balochistan.

Punjab is going to be where, at least in the short term, the future of Pakistan will be decided.

The elections will be reasonably fair but the losing groups will claim otherwise.

Onwards.